Wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) is a key staple crop worldwide and a strategic commodity for food security. In the Union of the Comoros, a small island developing state (SIDS) in the Indian Ocean, domestic wheat production is practically nonexistent; however, imports of wheat flour are rising due to demographic growth and dietary change. This paper develops a science-based assessment of the potential and constraints of wheat production in Comoros using a combination of climate time-series analysis, an agro-climatic suitability index, and simple yield-simulation scenarios. Monthly temperature and qualitative rainfall patterns are synthesized from long-term climate summaries, while a normalized suitability index aggregates temperature, rainfall and humidity penalties relative to globally accepted wheat requirements. Scenario-based yield simulations scale a notional potential yield by this index. Results indicate that most lowland areas of Comoros exhibit chronically high temperatures (>25 °C), high humidity and excess rainfall during the potential growing season, resulting in low suitability scores (<0.3 on a 0–1 scale). Only limited highland microclimates show marginal suitability for short-cycle or heat-tolerant wheat cultivars. Yield simulations suggest that even under optimistic assumptions, attainable yields are substantially lower than in temperate regions, and production costs would remain high relative to imports. The analysis confirms that large-scale wheat cultivation is not currently viable; however, targeted research plots and climate-resilient agronomic trials could be justified as part of a diversified food security and risk-management strategy.
1. N. Magazin et al., “Wheat Production Transition Towards Digital Agriculture Technologies: A Review,” Agronomy, vol. 15, no. 11, 2025, Art. 2640. 10.3390/agronomy15112640. 10.3390/agronomy15112640
2. V. S. Meena et al., “Climate-resilient strategies for wheat farming: minimizing climate impact, optimizing productivity, and maximizing profitability in the subtropical agroecological landscape of India,” Frontiers in Sustainable Food Systems, vol. 9, 2025. 10.3389/fsufs.2025.1564812.
3. FAO, “Wheat,” FAO Crop Information, Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome, accessed 2025.
4. FAO and OECD, OECD–FAO Agricultural Outlook 2024–2033, OECD Publishing, Paris, 2024. www.oecd.org/en/publications/2024/07/oecd-fao-agricultural-outlook-2024-2033_e173f332.html
5. World Bank, “The Union of the Comoros: Jumpstarting Agricultural Transformation,” Washington, DC, 2019. http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/388741568097428668
6. UNESCWA, “Arab food security monitoring framework: Country review – Comoros,” Beirut, 2021. https://www.unescwa.org/sites/default/files/inline-files/arab-food-security-country-reviews-comoros-english.pdf
7. S. Heikonen et al., “Climate change threatens crop diversity at low latitudes,” Nature Food, 2025. 10.1038/s43016-025-01135-w
8. S. Akbar et al., “A guide to irrigation requirement of wheat crop in FAO-developed agro-climatic zones of Punjab, Pakistan,” Irrigation Science, 2025. 10.1007/s44279-025-00189-5
9. W. L. Demissew et al., “Agroclimatic Indicator Analysis Under Climate Change Scenarios for Wheat,” Agriculture, vol. 15, no. 5, 2025. 10.3390/agriculture15050525
10. E. Custodio et al., “Food security and nutritional vulnerability in Comoros: The impact of the Russia–Ukraine conflict,” PLOS ONE, 2024. 10.1371/journal.pone.0313388
11. FAO, Global Agro-Ecological Zones (GAEZ v4) – Crop Profile for Wheat, FAO, Rome, 2022.
12. FAO, Crop Water Requirements and Irrigation Scheduling, FAO Irrigation and Drainage Paper, Rome, reprint ed., 2015.
